PCWorld Forecasts the Future

PCWorld posted an interesting story yesterday

PC World’s 100 Fearless Forecasts
From inexpensive 20-megapixel cameras to 50-terabyte DVDs, here’s our definitive list of technologies we’re looking forward to seeing.
Richard Baguley and Eric Dahl, PC World

The standard dreams of future technology, such as intergalactic spaceships and do-everything robot servants, are still a ways off, but plenty of exciting technology advances will be here fairly soon.

We collected our forecasts into eight categories: Desktops and Laptops, Storage, Chips and Components, Audio and Video, The Net, Cameras and Cell Phones, and Fun Stuff. Feel free to read the list straight through, or just skip around in your favorite categories.

It’s a pretty extensive list. Here are some of my personal favorites from their list:

Accurate Speech Recognition
Though the vendor of the Dragon NaturallySpeaking speech-recognition
program claimed an accuracy of 99 percent, in our recent tests the
application managed an accuracy of only about 96 percent–not
bad, but not good enough. We don’t need perfection, but we are looking
forward to a speech-recognition system that is fast and accurate enough
to replace a keyboard for writing.

A PC That Runs All OSs
Choosing an
operating system should be like choosing a pair of shoes in the
morning: You pick the one that suits where you’re going. Apple has made
progress with Macs that can run MacOS and Windows, but we’re looking
forward to systems that can run any and all OSs, either separately or
all at once.

More Laptops With No Operating System
Lenovo just started selling its ThinkPad T60p laptops without an OS.
That’s ideal if you’re planning on running Linux, since you save a
hundred dollars that would have gone toward a copy of Windows you’d
never use. We hope other vendors will follow Lenovo’s lead.

The Day That Gigabytes Become Passé
In 2007 you’ll be able to buy 1-terabyte desktop hard drives,
says Bill Healy of Hitachi. Drives will grow to 2 terabytes by the end
of 2009, and to an immense 8 terabytes by the end of 2013.

Faster, Longer-Lasting Flash Memory
The next generation of flash is coming. It’s called phase-change random access memory,
and Samsung hopes it will address several drawbacks associated with
flash. Unlike flash memory, PRAM doesn’t have to be erased before new
data is written to it, which Samsung claims helps make it up to 30
times faster than conventional flash memory. It should also last ten
times longer. Samsung expects to begin producing the first 512-megabit
PRAM modules in 2008.

Instant-Charge Batteries
Ultracapacitor batteries
are lighter than existing chemical batteries, and are already being
used in hybrid vehicles. A few years down the line, the market could
see lightweight ultracapacitor batteries in laptops, cell phones, and
other portable devices.

High-Capacity Nanotube Batteries
Carbon nanotube batteries
could have ten times the capacity of existing lithium ion ones. We’re
looking forward to camera batteries that last for an entire trip, and
cell phones with battery life spans of weeks instead of days.

High-Def Video Over the Net
Higher-bandwidth connections and new compression formats (such as the H.264 format) are a double whammy that will make high-definition video over the Internet a reality. Already, some video blogs (such as RocketBoom) are offering high-definition versions of their programs, and more will be coming soon.

 WiMax in the Wild
The wireless technology WiMax has been “coming soon” for some time, but
it looks like it’s finally here: Sprint is using it as the basis for
the fourth-generation wireless data network (4G). Let’s hope the other cell phone networks follow Sprint’s lead and roll out similar services.

Cheap Mobile Data
Currently you can
get speedy mobile Internet, but it’ll cost you, as most carriers charge
$80 or more for access to their EvDO wireless data networks. That’s
going to change, though: Sprint recently announced that it soon plans
to offer services that can transfer up to 1GB of data for less than $20
a month.

Hassle-Free Handoffs
The next generation of cell phones will use both digital cell networks
and other wireless technologies (such as 802.11g). And they’ll hand off
from one type of connection to another without you knowing or caring
that they are changing over.

1000 Pages Printed per Minute

Thanks to a new printhead design dubbed JeTrix,
in a couple of years you may never again have to hang out by the laser
printer waiting for your document to finish. Instead of a small
printhead that moves back and forth across a sheet of paper, JeTrix
heads can be built as wide as the sheet, allowing for some truly
amazing output speeds.

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Peer-to-Peer Power? Why not?

 Interesting article that caught my eye -

Could We See A Skype For The Power Industry?
from the peer-to-peer-power dept

There are many out there who see the future of the IT industry as resembling that of electrical utilities. In this vision, companies like Google and Salesforce.com build out computing power plants, and rent out software and processing power to their customers. Certainly, there are aspects of the business that are going this way, but to assume that today’s utility model is the model to strive for is to ignore some interesting things that are happening within the field of electrical power. A young company called GridPoint wants utilities to install backup power appliances in customer homes. The idea is that customers can store up power during off-peak hours, for use when demand is high. The company claims that by evening out demand this way, power companies can put off building new power plants. So while it may be that IT is looking to emulate the power industry, the power industry itself may go less decentralized, as new technologies help bring about distributed generation and storage.

I’ve talked to a lot of people in the last 6-8 months about P2P technologies. In communications, especially in enterprise networks, P2P represents a risk factor that many businesses aren’t willing to accept. Home users, however, use P2P technologies routinely.

Here’s a glimpse of an approach that could alter then landscape of the power inndustry.

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How to be a Video Star

I may not have posted this here yesterday. I’ve talked a lot about
SightSpeed the past few months. I’m a huge fan. Yesterday I learned
that MTV has been using SightSpeed on the Video Wall used in Total Request Live
to get viewers to be a part of the show.  As my friend Andy said, MTV put the V
in Video. And they’re quietly adopting the best in breed solution.
Would anyone with an interest in video discount MTV’s viewpoint?

Now Andy points out

Want To Be A Video Star?

MTV has issued a casting call on line for their hit show “Total Request Live” that  now features SightSpeed

Be a superstar thanks to SightSpeed

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When Bubbles Burst

I belong to the IEEE as a professional organization. It’s a huge organzation, encompassing areas of technology in every fathomable sector. Naturally I focus on telecommunications, but I also pay particular attention to the SIG watching the impact of technology on society. In the broader view, the IEEE looks at every aspect of technology. Here’s a snip from a recent article.

By Marina Gorbis and David Pescovitz

IEEE Fellows take a hard-nosed look at what technology is—and isn’t—on the horizon

IEEE Fellows Survey

As our population ages and needs more care, there will be fewer young people to provide it. But don’t expect to fill the personnel gap with humanoid robotic nurses, say a majority of the more than 700 IEEE Fellows surveyed in a joint study by the Institute for the Future (IFTF) and IEEE Spectrum.

The survey was conducted earlier this year to learn what developments IEEE Fellows expect in science and technology in the next 10 to 50 years. They ought to foresee such things better than most, because they have so much to do with bringing them about.

What other bubbles did the Fellows burst? Forget about being chauffeured to work by your car; the Fellows doubt that autonomous, self-driving cars will be in full commercial production anytime soon. And though they say Moore’s Law will someday finally yield to the laws of physics, slowing the increase in computer performance, the IEEE Fellows don’t expect to get around the problem by using quantum weirdness to perform calculations at fabulous speeds. Seventy-eight percent of respondents doubt that a commercial quantum computer will reach the market in the next 50 years. In short, the future is taking longer than expected to arrive.

I encourage those who are interested to follow the link and read, because there’s much more. This survey also noted five themes that the IEEE fellows surveyed believe are the main thrust of science and technology over the next 50 years. There’s a bit more on each of these in the article.

  • Computation and Bandwidth to Burn involves the shift of computing power and network connectivity from scarcity to utter abundance
  • Sensory Transformation hints at what happens when, as Neil Gershenfeld, director of MIT’s Center for Bits and Atoms, puts it, “things start to think”
  • Lightweight Infrastructure is precisely the opposite of the railways, fiber-optic networks, centralized power distribution, and other massively expensive and complicated projects of the 20th century
  • Small World is what happens when nanotechnology starts to get real and is integrated with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) and biosystems
  • Extending Biology is what results when a broad array of technologies, from genetic engineering to bioinformatics, are applied to create new life forms and reshape existing ones.

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Thoughts on the upcoming Internet Telephony Expo - Opportunity for you

I’ve mentioned before that I’ll be attending the upcoming Internet Telephony Expo in San Diego from October 10th-13th. It’s going to be a huge event with thousand of people from around the world attending. I’m modertaing two panel discussions on VoIP security on Friday, and there are several sessions I’d like to see.

I’ll also be meeting with a lot of people there. I’ll get to meet some fellow VoIP bloggers I’ve only known online like Bruce Stewart, Jon Arnold, and Russ Shaw. Lots of others, but those three have been on my “must meet” list for a long time. And I’m looking forward to meeting Peter Csathy from SightSpeed in person finally.

I plan on joining one of Andy Abramson’s legendary wine tasting dinners. Legendary indeed. Andy’s dinners, and the  company of friends who gather together is truly the stuff legends are made of. I consider it a great honor that Andy invites me to join such stellar gatherings.

Obviously there are exhibits and chances to talk to a lot of hot companies. It’s a chance to discover the next hot thing. There will be innovators who’ve yet to reach the public eye. And there will be products and companies on the way to fizzle there too.

I’m thankful that Rich Tehrani and the fabulous team at TMCnet graciously provide press credentials to bloggers and industry analysts like me. That helps facilitate access to some of the real movers and shakers in the industry.

I’m already scheduled to meet with folks from 911Enable, Action Tec, Paragon Wireless, snom Technology, Solegy, Sphere Communications and some others you’ll hear about later.

Because I’m on the press list, I’m receiving notes from many PR firms pointing out their clients at the Expo. Offers to meet flow freely at this point as they’re all looking for coverage and to make full use of their time. That’s where the opportunity comes in for you. I know many of the industry blogging and journalistic colleagues I read and talk with will see this, but there are many of you who are the folks out in the trenches doing the work.  Who do you want to hear from?

If there’s a company or individual with a perspective you’d like to hear, drop me an email so i can reach out and try to schedule them before the frenzy of the Expo kicks into high gear.

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Thoughts on value and simplicity rather than complexity

What began as some ranting on solutions that seem doomed to fail, heads in a different direction here.

Ted Wallingford posted Ken SCATHES Rebtel and Jajah; I pile on in response to some other posts yesterday, and I want to jump in with some more thoughts. Hopefully they aren’t jumbled. They’ve been rattling around in my head since last night. It’s also a chance to recognize some things Ted said, so where I quote him, he’s in italics and it should be obvious.

I’ll take a liberty here and say that Ken Camp has an “old-school” telecommunications background. That’s not a bad thing. It just means he knows HOW we got to WHERE we got.

Old school indeed, but I didn’t personally interview with Alexander Graham. I began my career purely in telecom at Pacific Bell in 1980. And when divestiture of the Bell System came along, I was one of the task force team putting pink and blue tape on central office floors and dividing up the assets. I did live in the old Bell System, yes. So I have lived much of the history and evolution directly and personally. I was also one of the rare data people in the telephony world for a good part of my time.

With that in mind, it’s important to realize that his firey scalding of Rebtel and Jajah is a reinforcement of the notion of Voice 2.0. Look, Voice 2.0 is about empowering USERS, it’s about removing barriers to human interaction by making applications that converge voice and other mediums smartly. It’s about wrangling the OSI model into something that fulfills the promises of the dot-com bubble, in many respects.

It doesn’t get much clearer than this. Voice 2.0 isn’t about making users work harder. Users do not want to do less with more. Ted’s key phrase nails it - it’s about removing barriers to human interaction by making applications that converge voice and other mediums smartly.

Ted says “We need to focus on increasing ACTUAL functionality and lose the obsession with placing band-aids on the infrastructure of yesterday in order to save a half-cent a minute.” I say amen, brother. I say again, amen!

I wrote IP Telephony Demystifed in 2001 or thereabouts. At that point in time, much of the industry saw VoIP as the long distance killer. AT&T and MCI were pillaging the market with absurd per-minute long distance charges. even the, iun the book, I pointed to the real future of VoIP as an integration and convergence tool. Believe me, not everything I projected in that book is accurate. We all make predictions that go awry, but let me share a snip or two from that book of five years ago.

Market leading companies experience tremendous difficulty in embracing disruptive technologies. It’s the nature of their business to support existing customers and sustain an ongoing revenue stream. This requires the adoption of widely deployed standard technologies. The motivation isn’t to innovate and do something completely new and untried. The motivation is to not rock the boat, but rather, to maintain status quo.

Disruptive technologies lead to new markets, which are difficult to analyze, and harder still to project. The traditional old-school planning methods used in the telecommunications industry make this task nearly insurmountable because the value created by the disruptive new technology is incompatible with the business model and processes, even the corporate culture, of the incumbent providers.

The telecommunications industry didn’t begin as the mature, even lethargic behemoth it is today. It began as a disruptive technology, displacing the telegraph system with a completely new, real-time, interactive communications tool. But no technology can remain disruptive. Once it becomes the mainstream, as the public switched telephone network did long ago, it becomes a sustaining technology. And once the sustaining technology matures, incremental advancements slow, and the door to disruption from outside opens.

Today, I look at those lines and instead of the telephony legacy they were speaking about, I think of VoIP. VoIP isn’t a sustaining technology yet, but it still hasn’t disrupted the industry the way it can. The way it should. And I think part of the reason is that there is a bit of a sustaining technology mindset in the VoIP sector. Too mamn VoIP companies appear to be complacent.

Here’s a larger excerpt of something I saw as a path to follow at the time

Internet Call Centers
One implementation of IP telephony that will grow in the next year is the call center. We’ve seen many changes in how people work in the past several months. More and more people focus on family, friends and want to change how they participate in their work environment. Internet call centers provide an approach that offers a work-at-home job, but with far more connectivity that we’ve previously seen.

Call centers have historically driven jobs to areas that offered a lower tax base to businesses. Many US companies now use offshore call centers in other countries where the labor rate is lower, but the distributed call center approach alters the cost structure and provides an effective method to hire domestic staff around the country. With the growing E-Commerce environment of the web, call centers have proven to be a growing segment of the market, yet traditional telephone technologies still present a barrier.

The leading approach for home agents has historically been ISDN. The Integrated Services Digital Network still doesn’t provide integrated services. The bottom line costs wind up being too high for most companies to invest in this architecture. A shift to IP telephony reduces the cost and provides better integration of services than ISDN has ever offered. Many companies are now looking at IP telephony coupled with DSL and cable modem solutions to fill future call center requirements.

Perhaps the greatest vision of promise in call center technologies was driven by the burst of the dot-com bubble. There were a large number of companies who tried to enter the Internet market selling all manner of goods on the Internet. These businesses had no “brick and mortar” which was on of the attractions, but many also had no history in providing customer service. Some succeeded, but even Amazon, one of the most successful examples, has yet to become a profitable company. Most attempts failed, and many failures related directly to inability to provide proper customer service. The focus of any company doing business on the Internet has become customer service. There is a demand for customer service that is best filled by the ability to speak with a live person. The call center, in any form, provides that ability.

Consider the picture below. The telephone network and Internet are both represented, but linked together much as they are in the real world. Customers might be at home or anywhere. They might contact the provider via telephone or via a web site. According to the Gartner Group, more than 70% of transactions take place over the telephone. Those web sites that have been able to implement live voice support for potential customers report as much as 50% increases in sales. Online worldwide revenues from retail sales are anticipated to hit $35.3 billion in the US this year.

The provider of products or services receives a query for customer support, and through distributed call center technology is able to redirect that call to a Customer Service Rep working from home.

Staffing of call centers has always been a difficult issue. The ability to hire remote staff, perhaps even part-time remote staff, allows the provider, regardless of location, to find good, qualified employees. Time zones become a non-issue. Even Customer Service Reps with special linguistic skills become obtainable resources. The benefits to telecommuter work force have been studied time and again in the past 10 years or more, and everything suggests continued migration to work-at-home efforts.

This solution also provides an opportunity for a pool of workforce candidates that may have been inaccessible in the tradition call center. Stay-at-home mothers, retirees, even people without transportation now become potential job candidates, participating in the workforce in ways they may not have been able to previously.

Distributed call centers do not require IP Telephony, but it does provide the greatest level of integration at the lowest cost. The distributed call center has often been implemented using PBX solutions and off-premise stations or ISDN lines. ISDN can be expensive, often more than DSL or cable modem, and is not at all ubiquitous. The newer generation of IP and Internet technologies make the distributed call center more cost effective to implement today that it has ever been in the past. The use of IP technology as a “PBX extender” creates a virtual call center environment that can physically be anywhere. Employees needn’t be passed over because of their geographic location. To customers, the company presents a single unified point of presence.

A broadband or high-speed connection capable of supporting voice and data simultaneously is optimal, with DSL being the technology of choice for most companies implementing these call centers today. The “home office” or heart of the distributed call center is typically traditional call center technology, but as we’ve already seen, is easily replaced by an IP solution today.

Distributed call centers use of a technology for job performance requires that managers take a more “hands off” approach to supervising workers than traditional workflow methods. Supervisors learn to rely on the systems, both telephone and computer networks, to measure and monitor productivity and worker activity. The idea of a worker being in the corporate office where work can be directly observed is transformed into a measurement of productivity and results rather than activity.

For some companies, the challenge of remote teleworkers becomes one of combating isolation. Since workers don’t have the social interaction with colleagues (i.e. water cooler chat), supervisors must adapt a management style that encourages interaction at all levels to minimize the chance that the remote worker will be left “out of the loop” and disenfranchised from the business of the company. Conference calls, computer video conferencing, and regular visits to the office or meetings with colleagues have proven effective in overcoming this issue.

The distributed call center provides a very attractive alternative for companies in large metropolitan areas that often have alternative commute requirements for air quality management. This solution can aid in bringing a business into compliance with these regulations.

While there has been a trend to move call centers offshore, today many companies have become very security conscious and are more reluctant to engage in offshore arrangements. The distributed IP telephony call center allows for substantial savings above traditional costs without sending jobs outside the US, although that option can also work using IP telephony.

Benefits to distributing call centers can be measured in a variety of ways. Some benefits cited by companies implementing this technique for managing a call center business include:

  • Reduced cost of office space - Since teleworkers do not require a cubicle or workspace in the corporate office, that office can shrink, reducing real estate and associated costs. In reviewing real-life implementations, the companies interviewed estimate that the building costs alone were recouped within 3 years by shifting to a distributed model.
  • Location – From the mid 1970s through the 1980s there was a migration of call centers from major metropolitan areas to more rural settings that provided a readily available work force and a reduced tax incentive to business. In particular, Omaha, NE provided some incentives to companies considering relocation and successfully attracted many call center businesses to the area. With the distributed model the corporate location is irrelevant, but so is the location of the teleworkers.
  • Tax benefits – In major metropolitan areas particularly, there are mandates to comply with alternate commuting methods. Car pooling, bicycling to work, and telecommuting are all proven alternative commutes in the proper setting.

Any organization that interacts with a distributed base of customers over the telephone may have need for a call center. These companies ranger among the following:

  • Healthcare providers, particularly large organizations and HMO/PPO groups often staff to handle patient calls.
  • Insurance carriers must deal with customer calls regarding policies.
  • Catalog or Internet-based merchants that have a high volume of telephone transactions
  • Airline, hotel, event registration and ticketing agencies have been very call center oriented businesses for may years.
  • Financial investment firms, particularly those dealing in high volumes of telephone calls.
  • Social services organizations of many types provide call-in services for their clients.

In general terms, the call center is probably not an appropriate technology for the small business. This solution is the best fit for high volume, transaction based services that require interaction with a customer service representative. On the other hand, a small business with an IP Centrex solution can implement call center services easily to provide new levels of customer service. In short, IP telephony brings the call center into the reach of a small company without the burden of a full-blown, expensive implementation. IP telephony not only disrupts the telecommunications industry, but also can level the playing field for smaller companies, providing tools that have only been available to businesses with a large budget and staff in the past.

Today, I look at what’s happening with Asterisk deployments as call centers for SMBs and divisional call centers inside large enterprises, and I can’t help but ask, what took so long.

Ted said Think IP. Think 2.0.  I agree, but with caveats. Think that to survive today. Think 3.0 if you’re looking to thrive today and survive tomorrow. Think 4.0 if you’ll looking at stardom and a place among the best companies of all time.

Don’t think commodities. Don’t think complexity. Don’t make the users work for the value. The value has to be in-your-face obvious. I’d liken it to a e-commerce analogy often used in the past for web-centric businesses. The real estate you have to work with is very small. It might be a 15 inch monitor, but it might be a PDA/cellphone display. The customer has a short attention span and you are one mouse click from being history. If you want to win the customer, you have to truly win the customer.

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CSO Magazine Article on VoIP Security

Today I got my September paper copy of CSO magazine. The cover story article by Scott Berinato is When Voice Becomes Data, and it’s an interesting exploration of migration from the PSTN to VOIP. Most often, I catch CSOOnline stories from the news feeds I read. This was a rare occasion when I went from paper, to the web site to find ths story online in order to point it out to you.


When Voice Becomes Data
With voice over IP picking up speed, CSOs face the challenge of navigating an entirely new threat landscape for the phone system
To understand the significance of voice over IP (VoIP), it’s useful to travel back in time. Specifically,
go to 4:45 a.m. on Sunday, Sept. 3, 1967. If you happened to be in a car in Sweden at that moment, you had to stop the car and do nothing for five minutes. Then at 4:50 you had to move your car from the
left side of the road to the right, and then stop again. Finally, at 5 a.m., you could proceed, on the
right. In those 15 minutes, the entire country changed a 300-year-old custom of Vänstertrafik,
left-side driving, to Högertrafik, right-side driving.

Ok, I have to say the Swedish traffic analogy is hogwash and doesn’t work well for me, or for the topic. But the article makes some great points, and other than a couple of visuals, is fully available at the online link above. And it makes the key point, the climax, early on -

As voice over IP and voice over the Internet grow, telecom will change to become open and
extensible, capable of supporting limitless new applications, often traversing an insecure and unstable public network and connected to complex and vulnerable multitasking end points called computers. An
enterprise.

Some of it’s way off base. I won’t agree with the author, or with Bruce Schneier, who’s quoted as saying “Once telephony goes over IP, it’s no longer eavesdropping on voice, it’s eavesdropping on data, and that’s so much easier. It’s like the difference between intercepting a handwritten note versus an SMS message. It’s the difference between a letter and an e-mail.

Eavesdropping on data is doable. So is eavesdropping on the PSTN. Neither is particularlty easy. I’ll argue extracting anything usable from a data stream is actually harder, but that’s a philosophical debate with hundreds of variables. It’s a what-if game that anyone can play and win. Any argument is a winnable argument given the right twists and turns. Pay attention to the response comments from Andrew Graydon with the VoIP Security Alliance. They’re on the money.

There’s lots of fodder for future posts and discussion topics in this well done article. I encourage you to read it.

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Skype and SightSpeed - What works for the enterprise?

A couple of, perhaps, conflicting thoughts are on my mind today.

First, following a story that’s been hot for several days 21talks notes this story -

Companies and universities still play at “Skype buster”
It could be a game, “Kick Skype’s ass” game, in which organizations and corporations beat and repel the softphone as hard as they can.

First bust: San Jose State University is the latest California school to ban Skype from its campus. Given reasons remain the usual: Lack of security and bandwidth consumption. Other SIP-compatible softphones like Gizmo and Wengo are allowed. SJSU mentioned other “grid-computing-like” softwares, which certainly refer to file-sharing platforms.

SJSU isn’t unlike a corporate network in this regard. They’re concerned about the security and integrity of the network. Skype is viewed askance by many a network administrator. Whether it’s port hopping, detection -evasion techniques, P2P technology bypassing corporate antivirus engines, or just fear of the unknown, unmonitorable activity, or the supernoding consumption potentital, many large networks shun Skype - with good reason

I’ve written many times about the need for P2P solution providers to come together and build standards taht give the enterprise business what’s needed to begin the true evolution to supportable P2P technologies for the next generation. They do not exist today. I work with enough enterprise security people to know that most view Skype with an eye towards the risk it presents, while closing an eye to any added value the convergence it brings might lend to business.

With that thought in mind, this in CIO Tech Informer certainly caught my eye

Skype Preps Enterprise-Friendly VoIP Software 

Skype is working to make its Internet telephony service more enterprise friendly, and expects to introduce a beta version of its software with support for enterprise management functions within weeks.

The update will allow system administrators to use standard Windows management tools to set how the Skype software connects to the Internet, or to disable any of half a dozen functions, including file transfers, said Skype’s vice president of telecommunications and Skype for business, Michael Jackson.

There’s far more to enabling Skype for the enterprise that just these Windows controls, but this is a start. And the first real word that Skype may want to get serious about business users. The proprietary encryption algorithms still make for headaches, whether it be SOX, HIPAA or GLB. Key escrow and recoverability of sensitive information is a requirement of, and the bane of, many an enterprise.

Sure, Skype worked with Intel who was willing to put up a proxy server to manage Skype traffic. How many companies want to invest in a Skype-proxy firewall? Why would they?

Skype maybe making a tiny, incremental step in the right direction, but let’s not make more of it that it is. In fact, lets point out what it is. It’s a self serving tiny step to boost their own business. It’s not an industry leader huilding a consortium to strengthen the adoption and acceptance of P2P technologies.

And Skype isn’t the only P2P vendor missing the boat here. They all just seem to not get it. Enterprise business doesn’t like P2P. Period. It’s viewed as a risk. If you want to gain entry, finding new one-off solutions to get your product past the perimiter isn’t the answer. The answer lies in one of two directions. One I’ve outlined is to form a coalition of friendly competitors in the technology set and work toward achieving what I’ll temr respectability. If you don’t have that, you won’t succeed in enterprise networks in any noteworthy scale.

The other approach, the one that is working, is to play by established rules within the corporate culture. Use accepted open standards like SIP. Don’t masquerade your traffic or access. If you act like you’re hiding something, I’m sorry, but you’re hiding something and untrustworthy. There are plenty of companies who play by the rules and are “security culture friendly.”

Need examples?

Fire up Ethereal or your packet sniffer of choice and just look at what’s on the network. Fire up SightSpeed and look at the traffic. What you see is normal, network-friendly, security-friendly traffic. Easily monitored. Easily managed. And if for some reason your corporate policies deem it inappropriate for your environment, well, it’s easily blocked too. Same with Gizmo. Same with Counterpath’s Xten-lite phone client. Same with Pulver Communicator. Even MSN/AIM/Yahoo play responsibly on the network.

SightSpeed is rapidly becoming my primary voice and video tool for a number of reasons. The only reason it’s not my single client is that too many people I talk with don’t use it much…yet. That’s changing, and this week I’ve added several new contacts who are also shifting towards SightSpeed.

For corporate networks, and for educational institutions like SJSC, SightSpeed represents a tool that lets students away from home easily talk to friends and family. And the cost of a webcam is just not a factor. Not at today’s prices. They’re giveaway/throwaway commodities, no more unattainable than a thumbdrive.

SJSC hasn’t done anything that isn’t being done in hundreds of business networks around the world. And frankly, that trend is on the rise. Security and protecting the network is an important concern, and you’d better believe the CIO at SJSC is tasked with protecting that network. This whole news story is much fluff about nothing. And I know many security managers who would do exactly the same thing.

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How Customer Service Savvy is Vonage?

Regular readers know I’m not particularly a fan of Vonage. I think they’re in bigger trouble than they, or a large part of the sector, acknowledges openly. Tom Keating has a really post on the difficulties of cancelling Vonage service up online today. It’s his personal experience. Given Tom’s technical background, he provided a pretty good transcript in his post. For those who prefer to read, follow the link to his post. For those who prefer to listen, he also recorded it and made an MP3 available.


Cancelling Vonage Difficulties
September 26, 2006

VonageI thought I would share my interesting experience with cancelling my Vonage service. I recorded the entire call, including the traversal over their IVR to reach an agent. Surprisingly, I was connected pretty quickly to an agent. I was expecting a much longer hold time. Perhaps customers leaving Vonage are given a higher priority in the queue, lest the customer become more irate with less chance of convincing the customer to stay?

In any event, here’s the recording conversation with Vonage in “all its glory”. The recorded call was edited to take out personal information as well as deleting some extraneous silence, but other than that it’s the call verbatim. 
Here is the MP3 of the call, and below is the transcript with my inline comments/thoughts/opinions, etc. Listen in on the call and read along!

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Gartner Report on theHype Cycle for Cyberthreats

I just got a copy of Gartner’s latest

Hype Cycle for Cyberthreats, 2006
Amrit T. Williams, Arabella Hallawell, Rich Mogull, John Pescatore, Neil MacDonald, John Girard,
Avivah Litan, Lawrence Orans, Vic Wheatman, Ant Allan, Peter Firstbrook, Greg Young, Jay
Heiser, Joseph Feiman
An increasingly hostile threat environment coupled with dynamic and evolving business initiatives drive more complex and distributed IT infrastructures that are harder to secure. Organizations must understand the threats and their life cycle to properly implement defensive strategies.

I’ll be reviewing it over the next few days and will post a write-up here. We’ll see how close to the obvious Gartner’s grasp is this time around. Here’s an excerpt:

Gartner’s Hype Cycle methodology tracks IT products, services and solutions during a life cycle. The cycle begins with a technology trigger that places it into the industry’s awareness, and it then rises through to a high level of hype, which is generally followed by a descent into the trough of disillusionment. This is based on the technology’s ability to meet the hype — in many cases, experience and maturation of the technology level out expectations, and the product, service or solution becomes useful and an integral part of the IT environment.

Cyberthreats follow a life cycle that is very similar to IT solutions. For example, there is a technology trigger that creates the initial awareness of the threat, voice over IP (VoIP) or virtualization threats against emerging IT solutions. The initial awareness is followed by media and vendor hype around the various aspects of the threat, for example, targeted attacks and zero-day threats have a lot of hype around them. Generally, this is followed by a descent into the Trough of Disillusionment as the realities of the threat and the reactive controls that organizations use minimize the threat’s “world ending” effects — examples include mobile and wireless device attacks and embedded operating system (OS) vulnerabilities. As technologies mature to deal with the threats and organizations are able to operationalize these technologies, the threats move through the Slope of Enlightenment and into the Plateau of Permanent Annoyance; they become threats that are part of doing business, and most organizations have mature programs, technologies and processes to deal with their existence. Viruses, denial of service (DoS) attacks and social engineering are examples of threats that have reached the Plateau of Permanent Annoyance.

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Sunset on the rocks

Sunset is, after all, best served…on the rocks

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Anenome

Waiting in a tidepool for hide tide to bring dinner.

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Looking sunset straight in the eye

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Starfish

Here’s a Nikon pic of the starfish left on the rocks at low tide.

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Haystack Rock

Been having trouble with Outlook sending pics up so I’m trying Thunderbird now.

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Weekend Decompression

Regular readers know I bought a 5th wheel trailer not long ago. Actually bought and sold one, then bought another. This is only the second weekend trip out.
I’m quickly finding how powerful a weekend away can be in decompressing from the stress and strain of our daily and weekly routines.
Waking up in the morning, making coffee, then wandering out for a wakeup stroll by the water, enjoying the piece an quiet, taking in the sounds and smells. Birds chittering in the morning sun. Rabbits nibbling across gree spots. The smell of salty ocean air.
I’ll be working more and more regular weekend escapes into my personal routine. My plan and goal through fall and winter is to average one a month. Next spring and summer, I hope to up the ante to two, but with some longer trips planned, that might not hold.
And part of what I’m exploring is what tools to take along to keep writing, not necessarily blogging, but maybe, on the fly. This weekend, the only technology along was my Treo and Nikon D50. Posting all via Treo, although formatting alwaysleaves a bit to be desired. I just haven’t figured that out because it hasn’t been important. Even a laptop is just so much bulk and mass to take on the road. Just rambling over coffee this morning.

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Spotted parked in Cannon Beach

Also spotted two magnificent Austin Healey 3000s in immaculate condition.

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Haystack Rock - Cannon Beach, OR

Just before sunset this evening.
Treo pic. Good pics from Nikon to follow.

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Starfish on Haystack Rock

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Time for a Nap

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