11/29/2007
Nemertes Research Report - The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web
I’ve never met Irwin Lazar, but he’s one of those people I read frequently and highly respect. Irwin’s a well known industry analyst at Nemertes Research and his interests and mine seem to overlap in a number of very different technology areas. Earlier today I got an email from him about The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web, a recently released Nemertes report.
The basic conclusion of the report is that based on current trends in carrier investment and traffic growth, there’s a good chance that there will be bandwidth contention issues primarily in North American access networks. This could lead to a situation where Internet Infrastructure is insufficient to support emerging bandwidth intensive applications. The study is based on models we developed and validated using best available data.
Nemertes has also released a FAQ on the report (http://www.nemertes.com/ii) to address some of the criticisms of the model, and we’ve opened up a discussion board at the same link.
At 62 pages, I haven’t made it through the entire report in depth myself. I’ve skipped around and done some reading. I’ve got it queued up for weekend study in depth. And my plan is to come back here and post some more cogent thoughts after some time digesting it. Looks to be a very solid piece of work, but Nemertes work (and Irwin’s) always is.
Technorati Tags: Nemertes Research, irwin Lazar, Internet, capacity
Filed by Ken at 9:14 pm under Technology
[...] Check it out! While looking through the blogosphere we stumbled on an interesting post today.Here’s a quick excerpt I’ve never met Irwin Lazar, but he’s one of those people I read frequently and highly respect. Irwin’s a well known industry analyst at Nemertes Research and his interests and mine seem to overlap in a number of very different technology areas. Earlier today I got an email from him about The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web, a recently released Nemertes report. The basic conclusion of the report is that based on current trends in [...]
Interesting stuff. I’m looking forward to your take on he whole thing.
Consider this though: Innovation is produced largely as an outgrowth of or adaptation to boundaries and constraints. Think about things like FAR, the file manager coming out of ru that squeezes incredible performance into such a little shell.
I think REAL innovation may actually be quite well served by these kinds of bottlenecks.